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The housing crisis is … everywhere

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While we’re very familiar withe housing crisis in major metropolitan areas – particularly the Bay Area – there is currently a shortfall of 3.8 million homes nationwide. Not surprisingly, California leads the way with a shortage of 978,000 homes.

The cost and demand for housing has far exceeded the supply and the ability to pay throughout rural regions as well as metropolitan areas.

Besides the high cost of building materials, other roadblocks include zoning regulations, environmental concerns, and the delay in getting building permits.

High-rise apartments coming to Bay Area suburbs?

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Those Bay Area cities/towns that have a state-approved plan to meet their homebuilding goals, may resort to a little-known proviso in the state building law known as the “builder’s remedy” which allows developers to build projects of almost any size as long as a portion includes affordable units.

Cities have until January 31, 2023 to get their plans approved but so far only two in the Bay Area- Aameda and Emeryville – have secured approval.

Currently, the Bay Area is responsible for adding 441,000 homes – and increase of 15 percent in the number of total homes. The state is threatening to level fines, withholding housing funding, and limiting permitting authority to those areas that do not meet the requirements.

Will high-rise apartments be the result?

Bay Area voters support housing measures

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Election Day saw Bay Area voters support a large number of ballot measures to build affordable homes and help strengthen renter protections.

In fact, the only housing initiative that was defeated was a $650 million bond proposal in Berkeley that failed to get the necessary two-thirds majority for passage.

Throughout the Bay Area, pro-housing candidates performed very well, giving hope that real progress can be made in the coming years.

Bay Area inflation rate continues to rise

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Inflation in the Bay Area is near a 20-year high running at a yearly rate of 6.8 percent. Inflation in June 2001 increased by 6.6 percent and in October 1984 by 7.1 percent.

The biggest culprit was utility bills – primarily PG&E – which increases of 18.9 percent for electricity and 16.3 percent for natural gas over a year-long period that ended in October.

Bay Area food prices increased by 10 percent on a yearly basis as well.

Bay Area home sales in October the lowest in 15 years

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A new report from Compass states that not only were Bay Area home sales down in October they were the worst since 2007.

Although home prices declined, they still remain high, which, in combination with interest rates over 7 percent, saw many would=be buyers step away while sellers were delisting their homes.

Of course, this could be an opportunity for savvy buyers as the competition has lest3enend and sellers are much more willing to negotiate.

Mortgage rates up, home prices down

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As home prices continue to decline – currently down 6 percent since May – and mortgage rates continue to rise – currently over 7 percent and doubled since January – how close are we to where the two balance each other out? According to experts – not very.

IOn San Francisco and San José, for example, prices would have to drop an additional 10 percent to reach May’s monthly payments.

On the other hand, many Bay Area cities had very high prices before the pandemic, so they would have to fall less than 10 percent. But prices would still remain very high!

Fed raises rates … again

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For the fourth time, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a point but indicated that future hikes might possibly be lower. Noting that hikes take a while to affect the economy and inflation, many analysts expect the next rate increase to be one-half a point.

While the economy continues to grow and hiring remains strong, sales of existing homes have decreased for eight straight months.

Currently, mortgage rates remain above 7 percent, up from 3.14 percent just a year ago.

Mortgage rates rise to over 7%

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For the first time since April 2002, mortgage rates have risen to over 7 percent, currently 7.08 percent compared to 6.94 percent last week. One year ago, mortgage rates were 3.19 percent.

This is a 56 percent increase in the monthly payment for the same amount borrowed in October 2021.

In 2002, a median single-family house in California cost $317,000; today it’s $822,000.

Bay Area homes selling for less than a year ago

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September saw the price of single-family homes in the Bay Area drop 2.6 percent for the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines. This means that homes in the region are now selling for less than they were a year ago – even if the median price is $1.26 million. This is the only area in California in which this is happening.

According to the California Association of Realtors prices in the Bay Area had spiked higher than other California regions so there was more room for them to come down. Likewise, more residents seem to be moving out of the Bay Area.

Of course, the main reason remains high interest rates, currently around 6.94 percent which more than offsets the decline in selling prices.